Warning: this text is speculative in nature and is a thought experiment.

Years ago, at one of the international markets training sessions, I heard something that stuck in my memory: “The Euro is an unrefined project, and Americans systematically play to weaken the EU and Germany. Globally, only the dollar matters.” I shrugged it off at the time because I was only interested in imports from China and didn’t grasp much from a global perspective. Today, looking at the global trade war unleashed by Trump, I wonder about the meaning of those words, while trying to understand MAGA accelerationism.

Maybe there’s a method to this madness? Perhaps tariffs are not just about fulfilling electoral promises, but part of a broader strategy in which the radicalization of Europe is not a calculation error, but an intended outcome? This strategy seems aligned with the philosophy that Roy Cohn, Trump’s business mentor (and a character from the movie “The Chosen One”), instilled in his protégé: “No matter what happens, declare victory and never admit defeat.” A well-known and tested method. Too bad that investors – unlike Trump’s voters – react to hard data, not to storytelling.

Context is key here. I’ve recently published a whole series on Elon Musk, MAGA radicalization, Project 2025, and alt-right conspiracy theories in the USA. These analyses show a broader pattern of actions that prompt deeper questions. So let’s consider what’s really happening in the minds of MAGA leaders and whether this chaos isn’t part of a bigger plan? Do you think imposing tariffs on goods is some kind of accident? Or rather a calculated geopolitical strategy with far-reaching consequences? Recent sessions on American, Asian, and European stock exchanges have brought the most powerful sell-off since the pandemic. Panic? Not yet, that will come later. And what does Trump say? “Markets will flourish, stocks will boom, the country will thrive” – he announced with a straight face. Let’s conduct a thought experiment and consider what might be the true goal of such radical changes.

From MAGA to MEGA: a thought experiment on the destructive power of tariffs

What if the goal of implementing global tariffs is not to make America great again directly through tariffs, but rather to make it great by weakening others? What if the true, long-term goal is to create a European equivalent of the MAGA movement, something that Elon announced in the form of MEGA, “Make Europe Great Again”? That is, breaking unity, parceling into nation-states, depriving the EU of agency as an entity. Sounds paranoid like a meta conspiracy theory? Let’s play conspiracy theorists. Let’s consider this today as a thought experiment for fun. And if it proves true, we’ll be able to say that this conspiracy theory has been falsified and is simply a fact or a paranoid interpretation of signals.

If the goal is to blow up the globalist economy project based on free trade and agreements (in which even NATO and Article 5 is an element of the deal and a safeguard for interests), then MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) would be the perfect tool. In practice, it would mean a fundamental transformation of the European political project, dismantling the post-World War II order, in line with Trump’s vision of the world. It would look something like this:

• An end to strengthening EU institutions – a return to strong nation-states
• Throwing climate and environmental regulations in the trash, because they supposedly “hinder the economy”
• Walls at borders and an end to “leftist” migration policy
• Bilateral agreements with the US instead of a common European front in trade negotiations
• An informal network of right-wing populist leaders with Trump as the godfather of the whole enterprise
• A shift away from secular human rights toward conservative values, probably religious ones

Such a Europe would be like a shattered mirror. Fragmented into pieces, incapable of joint action, and much easier to manipulate by the powers that be.

Is MEGA just a conspiracy theory?

Elon Musk appeared at a rally of the League, Matteo Salvini’s far-right party.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory? Just three months ago, 90% of the content in the Project 2025 document was treated as paranoid change projects resulting from conspiracy theories. Today we see how successive elements of this plan are being systematically implemented by the Trump administration. Perhaps the above scenario is also such a paranoid theory that will soon become reality.

As I wrote in Deep State, Anti-bureaucratic Revolution and Its Effects, the Trump administration is systematically dismantling state structures in the USA, which also affects international relations. The suspension of USAID funding and other actions, which I analyzed in Project 2025: How Trump and MAGA Can Transform American Climate Policy, show that institutional changes in the USA have a direct impact on America’s position in the world. Daily questions of whether this is a dream, whether they are really doing it, provide clear answers in the form of radical changes. Accomplished facts.

We see attempts to fuel autonomous tensions in Greenland. We observed Musk’s support for AfD, which didn’t yield spectacular results… today Musk is getting involved in Italian politics by supporting Matteo Salvini’s far-right party. A series of elections will take place in Europe this year. The nearest ones may not yet feel the full impact of American tariffs, but if the crisis escalates, elections in the coming years – not to mention old Europe’s fatigue with the war in Ukraine – may bring completely different results. Remember that Nazism emerged as a result of the Great Depression.

The economic crisis caused by a trade war could trigger a wave of social discontent ideal for populist movements, which, paradoxically, often accuse the establishment of causing the crisis. A worker thanking Trump with tears in his eyes for introducing tariffs will probably be very surprised by the effects of his political movement’s actions…

Accelerationism 2.0

The obvious question is: does Trump really plan to set the European house on fire, as he did with the USA, or is he just playing with matches without thinking about the consequences? In my opinion, this is a continuation of triggering transformative processes aimed at rebuilding the world system. It’s another stage in the fundamental change of the international order. Pure accelerationism.

Trump and his entourage have repeatedly expressed skepticism about the European project. Steve Bannon – Trump’s former strategist – openly talked about supporting populist movements in Europe. And a more divided Europe would be an easier negotiating partner for the USA. As I wrote in Festival of Hypocrisy: Turning a Blind Eye to Violence for Political Reasons, the relativization of values and double standards create fertile ground for radicalization. And economic uncertainty only strengthens this process. In fact, the scenario I’m describing is happening before our eyes.

Coincidence or long-term strategy?

Does Trump actually plan a long-term strategy for the radicalization of Europe? His supporters attribute too much strategic thinking to him, while his opponents portray him as a monkey with a razor, deprecating his background. Regardless of intentions, the effects may be the same.

It seems that after attacks on American federal institutions, it’s time to dismantle economic stability around the world. And all this under the slogan “America First.” Because, as the infamous Roy Cohn used to say, “no matter what happens, declare victory and never admit defeat.”

The clock is ticking. I have a feeling that the ticking clock is counting down to detonation – a fundamental change that could transform Europe in a way no one would have imagined a generation ago. What can save us? Unpredictability and the fact that historical determinism generating extremism is a great simplification on my part, and the world will be battered, but still a pleasant place to live.

• MAGA
• Marginalia