Stolen Election Theory: Progressive Media Trapped by Confirmation Bias

6 June, 2025 - Autor: Maciej Lesiak - 9 minutes read - 1843 words

What's in this article

Disclaimer: I don’t sympathize with any of the described political options. I describe what I see around me and how I perceive the mechanisms of persuasion and failures that create our daily reality.

Perfect timing for the emergence of a stolen election conspiracy theory in Poland. This is a textbook example of the mechanism I’ve been describing for years - when reality turns out to be incompatible with expectations, the brain constructs an alternative explanation. “How is it possible that it’s different from how I want it to be?” The answer is always the same: someone cheated.

Observing how Wyborcza and other progressive media handle the topic of alleged electoral anomalies, I see a perfect example of what I write about in the context of conspiracy theories. Media that for years mocked right-wing narratives about stolen elections are now producing identical content - just with reversed roles. This is a classic trap they fall into when emotional involvement overshadows rational analysis.

Internet “research” as a source of truth

After Rafał Trzaskowski’s defeat, a “mathematician and data engineer” named Mateusz appeared, who after downloading electoral data and “modeling vote flow according to IPSOS” discovered alleged massive anomalies. His diagnosis: “The number of votes that Trzaskowski should have received, the commission wrote down for Nawrocki.” Moreover, he adds a key observation: “no reverse cases were noted.”

Wyborcza immediately picked up this “research” and began producing materials about “miracles at the ballot boxes.” Commission after commission, region after region - everywhere the same pattern: Nawrocki miraculously gains hundreds of percent of votes compared to the first round, while Trzaskowski stagnates or loses. Mathematics stopped working, but only in Poland, only on June 1, 2025. Well, if you embark on the path of confirmation bias, you see crumbs leading to one place everywhere…

However, the methodology of this “study” is problematic. By selectively analyzing chosen commissions, it ignores the basic problem of statistical sampling. We don’t know how many commissions were analyzed in total - it’s possible that only those showing “anomalies” were shown, while thousands of other commissions showed normal vote flow. This is a classic example of cherry-picking data - selecting facts that confirm a pre-adopted hypothesis.

Algorithms (Facebook, X/Twitter) amplify confirmation bias and polarization, creating perfect conditions for such theories. I’ve written about this repeatedly on the blog in the context of confirmation bias or cognitive errors as mechanisms for creating conspiracy theories.

Case study: Commission No. 95 and Jakub Kosek’s cognitive error

A perfect example of the conspiracy theory formation mechanism is the case of Jakub Kosek, Chairman of the Krakow City Council, who publicly presented “evidence” of irregularities in his electoral commission on Facebook. Kosek published a compilation of results, suggesting mathematical impossibility in vote flow.

However, analysis of his data shows something opposite:

First round (commission no. 95):

Trzaskowski: 550 votes
Nawrocki: 218 votes
Other candidates combined: about 800 votes
Total turnout: 1569 people

Second round:

Trzaskowski: 540 votes (decrease of 10)
Nawrocki: 1132 votes (increase of 914)
Total turnout: 1672 people (increase of 103)

The vote flow is mathematically possible: Nawrocki received 914 additional votes, while about 800 votes from candidates who didn’t make it to the second round were available, plus 103 new voters with higher turnout. Even assuming not all voters of other candidates voted for Nawrocki, the result is fully realistic, especially in a commission with a right-wing electorate profile.

Kosek made a classic cognitive error - he didn’t consider that voters of candidates eliminated from the second round (Mentzen, Braun, Stanowski, Hołownia) could naturally transfer their support to Nawrocki. Such vote flow is not only possible but quite predictable, as many political scientists said.

More about cognitive errors and confirmation bias in activists I wrote about the conspiracy theory of Google algorithm manipulation in the context of local politics.

Exit poll as reality test

A key argument against the theory of massive fraud is the extraordinary precision of exit polls. The initial poll showed a slight advantage for Trzaskowski (50.3% to 49.7%), but the late poll already indicated Nawrocki’s victory (50.7% to 49.3%). Official results (50.89% for Nawrocki, 49.11% for Trzaskowski) almost perfectly matched the later poll.

If massive fraud had really occurred in hundreds of commissions across the country, exit polls would significantly deviate from final results. The poll’s precision indicates that the result reflects voters’ actual will, not the result of coordinated manipulations.

Conspiracy theorists ignore this fundamental reality test, preferring to believe in a scenario where hundreds of independent electoral commissions simultaneously confused protocols in favor of the same candidate. Additionally, this conspiracy theory meets the requirements of a classic paranoid theory definition, because if such a conspiracy were real, it would probably be hard to keep it under control. Initial analyses of source materials indicate over-interpretation of signals, i.e., a paranoid pattern in semantics.

Progressive media trapped by confirmation bias

The most ironic aspect of this situation is observing how progressive media fall into the trap they themselves criticized for years. Wyborcza, TVN24, onet.pl and other portals pump narratives about “mathematical anomalies” and “worrying patterns,” using exactly the same rhetoric they mocked when Trump supporters used it after the 2020 US elections. Tusk and Trzaskowski issued an appeal for restraint, but well, the “conspiratorial milk” has already spilled…

This is a textbook example of confirmatory bias in action. When the election result turned out to be incompatible with expectations and forecasts, media began looking for alternative explanations. Instead of confronting the possibility that their candidate lost due to strategic errors, they prefer to believe in a theory of mass manipulation. This is how the brain works when trying to explain the inexplicable - it generates conspiracy theories. People readily picked this up because it’s hard to accept that instead of voting for a candidate they considered cool, the dark masses voted for others, and later, instead of voting for Trzaskowski as they predicted (apparently incorrectly), they voted for a candidate who was described as a monster, a pimp.

Media that should be guardians of rationality themselves become producers of conspiratorial content. This not only undermines their credibility but also provides ammunition to political opponents who for years were criticized for similar behavior. This is exactly how democracy loses and how Trump came to power in the US on a wave of anti-establishment movement and criticism of mainstream media, which through hypocrisy and selective topic coverage pushed people to places like X.

Real causes of defeat

The real causes of Trzaskowski’s defeat are much more mundane and painful for his supporters than conspiracy theory. Campaign analysis points to fundamental strategic errors:

Negative campaigning as dominant strategy. Trzaskowski’s staff focused on attacking the opponent (apartment issue, prostitute story) instead of building a positive vision. This generated disgust even among potential voters of the KO candidate.

Communication and rhetorical weakness. KO/PO politicians present a predictable, technocratic communication style, operating with phrases straight from a PR handbook. In confrontation with PiS populists who speak the language of everyday life and emotions, such a strategy is doomed to failure.

Elitist tone cutting off from broad electorate. In a country that historically doesn’t like elites, presenting oneself as representatives of the “civilized” option has limited effectiveness.

Ziemniaki Koalicja Obywatelska I thought the above photo was an AI creation, some thick disinformation, but reality turned out to be sadder and more tangled - speaking very generally and delicately.

The right wing, however, perfectly understood the mechanisms of contemporary politics and manipulation. PiS speaks the language of memes and persuasion, but reaches recipients. It controls the narrative and sets public debate topics. It’s simply better at the political game of contemporary internet, where content consumption lasts 1-3 seconds. However, even in traditional format, e.g., radio talk shows, this is also confirmed by my daily observation of debates on TOK FM, where PiS politicians regularly take initiative over their opponents. Maybe it’s easier to be a populist, but if that’s the case, then democrats should put 10x more effort into communicating with voters.

My diagnosis: PiS will return faster than expected

Looking at what’s being said in town, reading the press, listening to politicians’ statements… My prognosis is pessimistic but probably realistic: PiS will return to power in the 2027 parliamentary elections, probably with a constitutional majority together with Konfederacja. The Left may not cross the electoral threshold. A 2026 scenario is also possible, but it depends on how deeply the current registers of paranoia in coalition circles get twisted, which will burn out their potential.

With Nawrocki as president, PiS gains an ideal strategic position: it can block every reform of Tusk’s government through presidential veto, generate continuous political crises and voter frustration who expected changes. Growing social dissatisfaction will translate into a return to power in a natural way.

The key problem is that KO/PO makes the same strategic mistakes as in 2015-2023. Instead of conducting thorough self-analysis and learning from opponents, politicians of this formation stick to ineffective communication methods and strategies. The current conspiracy theory about stolen elections is another example of escape from difficult questions about their own mistakes.

Conclusion: Is diving into conspiracy theories a solution?

We’re all probably observing a sad spectacle that can be described as self-destruction on an unprecedented scale. Progressive media that for years built their position on criticizing conspiracy theories and disinformation now become their producers themselves. Politicians who were supposed to be an antidote to populism turn out to be less competent than the populists they were supposed to replace. The campaign, instead of being a celebration of democracy and an opportunity to learn about programs, becomes a spiral of disinformation, silence, and hate.

The conspiracy theory about stolen elections diverts attention from fundamental problems of Polish politics: strategic weakness of the so-called democratic camp, lack of charismatic leaders, inability to communicate with voters. A pattern probably repeated from the US, where democratic circles probably still don’t understand where the defeat came from, how is it possible? Instead of conducting painful but necessary analysis of defeat causes, it’s easier to believe in a narrative about external forces responsible for failure.

ziemkiewicz The war on X is in full swing, and radical accelerationists on the right skillfully turn up the temperature of polarization.

This escape into conspiracy theory may prove to be the final nail in the coffin of Polish liberalism. Media lose credibility, politicians compromise themselves in voters’ eyes, and PiS gains additional arguments to return to the political scene. Anti-establishment movements and accelerationists benefit, and they’re most interested in depreciating authorities, mainstream, and pushing people into the rabbit hole of conspiracy theories.

History will show whether Polish progressive media will be able to get out of this trap, or whether they will continue the destructive spiral of losing social trust. For now, everything points to the second scenario. I write this with sadness.