A theory of deliberate sabotage is growing around a new ASF outbreak in a major pig farming region near Piotrków. Is it just a conspiracy theory or a real threat to Polish agriculture? We analyze the facts and hypotheses.
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Recently, the media reported that a dead wild boar with a confirmed case of African Swine Fever (ASF) was found in the Piotrków district, one of Poland’s largest pig farming regions. The story quickly gained prominence when the Minister of Agriculture, Stefan Krajewski, publicly suggested that sabotage, including “eastern diversion,” could not be ruled out. This was picked up by internet users and journalists.
Reports highlighted the unusual circumstances of the discovery. A skinned and gutted carcass dumped in an area previously free of the disease points to deliberate action and further fuels speculation. The media soon reported that, in addition to the Territorial Defence Forces, the Internal Security Agency (ABW), the police, and the prosecutor’s office were involved.
Numerous comments appeared on platform X (formerly Twitter), suggesting the possibility of deliberate action:
🐗 Another sabotage from our eastern neighbors? A dead wild boar with ASF was found near Piotrków. The Veterinary Inspectorate suspects the carcass may have been deliberately dumped near the road.
— NEXTA Polska (@nexta_polska)
In Poland, an increase in hybrid incidents is noteworthy: sabotage of railway infrastructure, diversionary activities, or the recent high-profile case of an ASF-infected animal carcass being planted near a pig farm.
— Piotr Brzyski (@p_brzyski)
A Conspiracy Theory with Falsification Potential
Currently, the thesis of sabotage in the context of ASF has the status of a conspiracy theory. There is no unequivocal evidence of deliberate action or the involvement of third parties, and the spokesperson for the special services is currently tempering moods, stating that there is no indication of sabotage.
However, unlike many other paranoid theories, this one is potentially falsifiable. This means it can be disproven or confirmed with evidence and facts. Proving the deliberateness of the actions, for example, by catching someone in the act, through surveillance footage, or a forensic investigation, would turn the hypothesis into a fact.
I would like to draw attention to the potential of ASF here. This virus has been described in scientific literature for years as a potential tool for economic bioterrorism. The main arguments for this are:
- Low barrier to entry: The virus is easy to obtain from endemic areas and does not require advanced knowledge to spread. As in our case, an animal carcass can be planted, which is easy to conceal.
- Safety for the attacker: The virus is not harmful to humans.
- Huge economic losses: The disease decimates farms and leads to trade restrictions, hitting the country’s food security. It is therefore an excellent way to destabilize the economy and sow unrest.
A historical precedent we can draw an analogy to is the ASF epidemic in Cuba in 1971, which led to the liquidation of half a million pigs. Although the sabotage thesis was initially considered propaganda, the press later reported that the virus transfer could have been an operation supported by the CIA to destabilize the Castro regime. Despite the lack of clear evidence in the agency’s documents, this hypothesis has never been effectively falsified. Although the CIA has repeatedly used economic and destabilizing arguments in its war against opponents.
MAP - Evolution of African swine fever in the world from 1 January 2018 to 22 September 2018 in domestic pigs (circles) and wild boars (triangles)
What Does the Veterinary Inspectorate Say?
Konrad Dereń, the district veterinarian in Piotrków Trybunalski - the person actually conducting the on-site investigation - is much more cautious in his interpretations. In an interview with the portal farmer.pl, he presented an alternative hypothesis: the virus genotype detected near Piotrków also occurs in the Opoczno district and the Świętokrzyskie voivodeship, which may suggest a natural migration of an infected wild boar during the mating season, when animals cover long distances.
Dereń maintains an epistemological (i.e., cognitive) caution: “Of course, it cannot be ruled out that humans contributed to the transmission of the virus in one way or another. Currently, there are no grounds to unequivocally point to a specific scenario.” Verification work is underway - the services are checking, among other things, records from camera traps and hunting logs.
The discrepancy between the minister’s political narrative of fear and the balanced position of the expert on the ground is telling. The juxtaposition of these two interpretations shows how easily a hypothesis can be picked up and amplified by social media and the media before any evidence emerges.
Cui bono?
Regardless of whether sabotage actually took place, it is worth asking the question: who benefits from the narrative of sabotage itself, i.e., the creation of a paranoid interpretation of the facts, which, until falsified, remains paranoid?
The minister sustains a crisis to potentially manage it, providing an opportunity to demonstrate vigilance against “eastern threats,” which has obvious political value in the current geopolitical climate. The media have their dream topic with ready-made dramatic tension: mystery, an external enemy, a threat to ordinary people… Social media platforms - they heat up engagement, the desired metric that drives algorithms much more effectively than the balanced position of the district veterinarian, which is essentially boring and negated as expert knowledge. What counts is the common sense of the street.
There is also a more disturbing variant: the panic itself - instilling distrust in structures and authorities at an informational level - is a value in itself. It is worth looking at this independently of the scale of the biological threat. The current case perfectly fulfills this goal. From this perspective, it is not necessary to successfully infect the pig population and cause an economic crisis. It is enough for society and institutions to react as if the threat were certain, generating more conspiracy theories. The multiplier effect is provided by the media and politicians.
The paradox here is that public speculation about sabotage, even if motivated by concern, may serve the interests of a potential aggressor better than the virus itself. It spreads in a very similar way.
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